New Israeli military-settler onslaught may be imminent - Article by Chris Doyle in Arab News, 3 August 2036
Every August fills me with additional tension. Experience shows that those powers and leaders who have ambitions to commit atrocities know that this is an optimum time to do so. The same can also be said of the Christmas-New Year period. Those leaders who care about American and European pressure know that politicians from these states all head off on holiday at these times. As an advocate myself, I know how tough it is to build any political pressure when the political and media classes are sunning themselves on beaches, charting their way around golf courses or relaxing en famille.
Palestinians have every reason to fear this August. In Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu may well wish to smash any hint of progress following the latest deal with Hamas, which the US announced last week.
Yet it is the West Bank where a full Israeli onslaught may be unleashed. All the warnings are there. Why the fear?
Firstly, Netanyahu is facing an election in October in circumstances in which he requires a political miracle. His bloc lags in the polls. Only a major change in fortunes could swing it for him. Typically, this means an escalation on one or more fronts. US President Donald Trump has blocked action on Iran as he searches for a deal. Likewise on Lebanon, the US is pressuring Israel to back off, while Trump has invested in his relationship with President Ahmad Al-Sharaa of Syria, ruling the north out as a front to reactivate. This leaves Gaza and the West Bank.
Yet again, a degree of pressure is there for Netanyahu not to be the one that wrecks the minimal progress achieved on Gaza last week. The West Bank is the convenient remaining front.
Secondly, the West Bank is the most electorally profitable front for Netanyahu. The Israeli right cares about the future of what they call Judea and Samaria far more than Gaza or Lebanon. Should the prime minister up the ante here, promoting further major settlement projects and land theft, he will be pleasing a majority of the population. If he also triggers an intensification of military activity, including emptying a few more refugee camps, he would see this as desirable.
The Likud party will hold its own internal primary in August. The settler movement is essential for Netanyahu to win over, even if just to ensure the settlers vote for Likud rather than the other right-wing parties. He will not win a single vote from the ever-declining number of Israelis who cherish peace and an end to the fighting.
Has this escalation already kicked off? A wide-scale Israeli military-settler onslaught started in the last week of July. This followed the killing of two Israelis in the village of Tell, along with four Palestinians. Tell has not been a village that has witnessed consistent levels of settler violence. It was a shock.
For those in doubt about the intentions of the more extreme Israeli settlers, check out what Yehuda Shimon, a lawyer, told the BBC: “I think now, after they killed one Israeli, we need to kill all the people in Tell and Sarra, even Jit and Farata.” He continued: “One Jewish life, it’s 10 million (Palestinians).” This man is unlikely to be arrested for his genocidal intent or even disbarred as a lawyer within Israel.
Settler violence and aggression against Palestinians keeps setting new records. There were 3,033 Israeli settler attacks recorded between Jan. 1, 2025, and the end of June 2026. That works out at an average of about six attacks a day.
The olive harvest is also creeping up. Every year, this sees an uptick in settler violence against Palestinians. Who would be surprised if 2026 were to be the worst harvest on record as a result of settler-army aggression?
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz certainly knows how to attract the settler vote. In the settlement city of Ariel, he announced he had canceled all administrative detention orders for settlers in the West Bank, while also claiming he himself had never signed any such order. He also ordered Shin Bet to declassify settler violence as terrorism. As green lights for violence go, this is clear.
Land grabbing could also be ramped up. Netanyahu has delayed any further steps on the E1 settlement project for now, but this could change at any time. There are no shortages of other settlement projects to press ahead with. A new settlement south of Jenin was approved in mid-July.
As always, Palestinians will lose out during Israel’s election season. Bashing them, even killing them, wins votes. Nobody knows this better than Netanyahu. The support of the opposition parties highlights there will be zero respite.
Does anyone seriously think the US and European powers will do anything? If they do, it will not be in August. At best, as the holiday season winds down in early September, some futile actions may be considered. By then, it may be too late for many.
